What to watch as Trump meets Germany’s new leader Merz

President Trump will meet German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Thursday at the White House, where issues of foreign policy and trade are likely to dominate.

The center-right leader, who has at times clashed with Trump allies, is poised to meet his biggest diplomatic test yet since being narrowly elected in May. 

Here are four things to watch in what could be a contentious meeting.

Russia-Ukraine war

Trump is set to meet with Merz a day after he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in what Trump called a “good conversation,” but not one that will lead to peace. The president has grown increasingly frustrated with Putin, who he recently said has gone “absolutely crazy.”

Merz’s election in February gave Ukraine a strong supporter in Germany. He has joined Trump’s push for a ceasefire deal in the war with Russia, while also positioning Germany to better support Ukraine without the U.S.

Merz met last week with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Berlin, where he announced Germany will bolster its backing of Ukraine, including by sending over more military equipment and increasing weapons manufacturing in Kyiv.

When Trump and Zelensky had a tense exchange in the Oval Office in February, sparked by Vice President Vance suggesting Zelensky wasn’t thankful enough for U.S. support, Merz accused the U.S. leaders of “deliberate escalation.”

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), who recently got back from Ukraine, said he expects the Trump-Merz meeting to be productive, pointing out how Germany has increased its defense production and defense spending commitments. 

“Obviously, the chancellor’s going to be concerned about tariffs, and that could be a real sticking point,” the senator said. 

Trade talks

The visit between the two leaders comes as the European Union (EU) is in talks with U.S. officials to make a deal on tariffs, and a day after Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs were doubled to 50 percent. 

The EU’s trade chief Maroš Šefčovič met with Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Paris on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported, while the European bloc braces for retaliatory tariffs imposed by the U.S.

Trump imposed a 20 percent tariff on European goods on “Liberation Day” before pausing tariffs for 90 days; separate 10 percent tariffs remain in place. The president recently threatened to impose a 50 percent tariff on the EU, arguing the Europeans have been uncooperative and that negotiations haven’t gone far enough.

The visit on Thursday is critical for Merz to try on behalf of the 27-member bloc to convince Trump to back off the 50 percent tariffs. It’s the first in-person meeting between the leaders. 

Merz spoke with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Finland’s President Alexander Stubb in recent weeks for advice about the delicate talks with Trump, Bloomberg reported, looking to avoid the confrontation and tension that emerged in Trump’s face-to-face meetings with Zelensky and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

US involvement in German politics

Vance met with Merz, as well as the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party’s leader Alice Weidel, in February before the country’s elections.

After the meetings, the vice president said that the AfD is the “most popular party in Germany, and by far the most representative of East Germany. Now the bureaucrats try to destroy it.” 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio this month piled on support for AfD, blasting the German domestic spy agency for designating the far-right party as an “extremist” political group.

“Germany just gave its spy agency new powers to surveil the opposition. That’s not democracy—it’s tyranny in disguise,” Rubio said on the social platform X. “What is truly extremist is not the popular AfD—which took second in the recent election — but rather the establishment’s deadly open border immigration policies that the AfD opposes.”

Vance had also accused the government of trying to “destroy” AfD, which tech billionaire and former Trump adviser Elon Musk also supports. Musk appeared virtually at a rally for AfD, which at the time led the German government to accuse the Tesla CEO of meddling in the country’s elections.

Merz has pushed back on Trump officials meddling in Germany’s domestic politics. 

“We have largely stayed out of the American election campaign in recent years, and that includes me personally,” Merz said in an interview with Politico in May. He said he told American officials, “We have not taken sides with either candidate. And I ask you to accept that in return.” 

Middle East conflict

It’s not clear if talks on the Middle East will be on Trump and Merz’s agenda, with Washington and Berlin largely in alignment on engaging more with Syria and securing a deal with Iran to box in its nuclear program. 

On Israel, the German chancellor could ask the president to exert more pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back Israel’s military operations and increase delivery of humanitarian aid.

While Germany has defended Israel’s right to respond to Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack against Israel, the Palestinian death toll and humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip prompted the German government last month to threaten limits on weapons transfers to Israel and other unnamed measures. 

While Trump has supported Israel’s military actions and called for the U.S. to take ownership of the Gaza Strip and for Palestinians to be permanently relocated, he has also directed the resumption of humanitarian aid deliveries and negotiated with Hamas to release an American citizen. 

His top envoy for negotiations, Steve Witkoff, is pushing a two-month ceasefire and hostage release deal with the U.S.-designated terrorist group.