How Trump can succeed where his predecessors failed in Gaza

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to resume the war on Gaza triggered a wave of condemnations, including from key Arab capitals. Alas, such statements are likely to have the same ineffectual impact as previous ones. 

Indeed, the time for condemnations is over; action is long overdue. And it should now entail Arab leaders offering President Trump a strategic game-changing deal.

The Arab League took the first step in embracing a detailed plan for Gaza rehabilitation and a less detailed roadmap for making it happen. Netanyahu’s predictable rejection was swift. 

Nonetheless, the American reaction was most telling: Netanyahu’s dismissal did not dictate Washington’s position. After initially rejecting the plan, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff changed course, making public the administration’s view that the plan represented “a good-faith first step”  worthy of further discussion.

That display of daylight between Washington and Jerusalem was the second since Trump was reelected. The first was when Witkoff forced Netanyahu to accept the three-phase ceasefire deal, which the Israeli premier had rejected for months. 

While conventional wisdom has it that Trump is in Netanyahu’s pocket and that the Israeli premier can do as he pleases, these two instances undercut that assumption. It should inform Arab planning.

Trump’s unpredictability can work both ways. He might tire of, and choose to ignore, the Gaza crisis, or he might realize its explosive potential and opt to end it. Certain Arab leaders, who have long gained his respect and trust, might hold the key to his decision whether to engage.

For that to happen, those Arab leaders should consider employing both a reality check and transactional temptation. The former involves impressing upon Trump that what happens in Gaza does not remain in Gaza.

The pain inflicted on innocent Gazans for the unacceptable viciousness of Hamas is horrific. It alone is a reason to act. However, it is not the only consequence of another phase of fighting. Its spillover is already felt on the West Bank, where angry young Palestinians increasingly take to arms, as violent Israeli settlers harass and provoke them. 

With the Israeli security forces responding, the West Bank undergoes “Gazafication.” The return to office of the arch provocateur, Jewish supremacist Itamar Ben Gvir, bent on Judaizing the Haram al Sharif/Temple Mount in Jerusalem, threatens to inflame the Muslim world. 

Arab leaders should advise Trump that looking the other way threatens neighboring Jordan, regional stability and a major conflagration on his watch.

The second means of affecting Trump’s calculus would be to offer him a deal that demonstrates why he can succeed where all his predecessors failed. In essence, it involves an unprecedented commitment by these Arab leaders to reciprocate his engagement with a powerful Arab coalition undertaking to do much of the heavy lifting.

Building on the Arab League plan, while making clear the resolve to prevent Hamas involvement in future governance and to disarm Hamas and all other Gaza terror organizations, that coalition could offer a game-changer. It would include committing to assume responsibility for Gaza — boots on the ground included, help the Palestinian Authority as it undergoes reforms and offer Israel normalization with Saudi Arabia and regional integration. 

The other side of the deal, which needs to be spelled out with equal clarity, is that it is up to Washington to usher in a change in Israel’s policy. That change must involve ending the war, removing the veto over Palestinian Authority involvement, and accepting a path leading to a future two-state solution.

Achieving these changes in Israel’s policies will not be easy. Washington will need help. Its best ally might be the Israeli public. 

For months, in every opinion poll, Israel’s majority prioritizes ending the war to secure the return of the hostages. Likewise, when the Palestinian issue is associated with normalization and regional integration, Israelis go for it. Here, too, Arab leaders hold the key, for no one can convince Israelis of the regional promise more than the Arab leaders who can make it happen.

Consequently, the proposed deal with Trump should include not only regional undertakings regarding Gaza and the West Bank, but also regarding Israel.

Whereas it is his job to affect Israeli government policy, powerful regional allies can energize Israeli public support for that change. Were Arab leaders to address the Israeli public directly by inviting Israeli media to press conferences in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and the like, or otherwise, Israelis are likely to respond.

Building on Israelis’ confidence in Trump and fascination with major leaders like those of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, a joint Washington-regional strategy can spur real change.

With the alternative so bleak and the consequences to regional stability so alarming, it is time that those Arab leaders recognize their agency. By resorting to such a two-prong approach — mobilizing Trump and energizing the Israeli public — they can set in motion a course change that turns the corner on the Gaza tragedy and offers a brighter horizon to Israelis, Palestinians and the region.

Nimrod Novik was the policy advisor and special envoy to the late Prime Minister Shimon Peres. He is a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum and a member of the leadership of Commanders for Israel’s Security and the Economic Cooperation Foundation.