It’s Tuesday. It’s a stunningly beautiful day, and I wish Congress would move its business outside. TBH, I think a little fresh air would help everyone.

Today's forecast in DC: ☀️ 60° (Find your weather here)

In today's issue:

• Government funding negotiations latest
• White House gets involved; Trump threatens GOP “no” vote
• Trump doubles Canadian metal tariffs
• Southwest ditches free luggage policy ????

Today is a big day in the government funding saga — and it’s looking precarious at best. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is weaving through a series of puzzle pieces to pass the six-month funding plan he unveiled over the weekend. He needs all but one Republican to agree, and as of 12:30 p.m., it still seems uncertain.

Bringing in the bigger guns: Vice President Vance is on Capitol Hill today to take a stab at negotiations among Republicans. He attended a House Republican Conference meeting this morning, and his message was clear: Vote for the current bill because that’s what the boss (President Trump) wants.

^ A source relayed Vance’s message from the closed-door meeting to The Hill's Mychael Schnell: "If it fails in the House, R’s will be blamed. If it fails in the Senate, Schumer will be blamed. If it passes and is signed into law, America will benefit!"

Did Vance’s message change anything?: Several Republicans are still on the fence, per CNN’s count. Nearly a dozen Republicans are currently undecided or leaning toward “no.” A looming question: Will any vulnerable Democrats help Republicans?

One Republican is getting on Trump’s nerves: Republican Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.) said he will not support the bill, making him the only Republican “no” vote Johnson can afford. Trump is angry, vowing to “lead the charge” to unseat Massie for it. (Though, Johnson still called Massie “a friend” despite his opposition.) FWIW, Massie is fundraising off Trump’s threat.

What’s the plan today?: The House will vote on Republicans’ government funding plan at 4 p.m. — and then they’re leaving town. That doesn’t give the Senate any wiggle room. Assuming House Republicans end up passing their funding bill, senators must either accept it or reject it. House lawmakers won’t be around to tweak it later this week.

Brief reminder on what needs to happen: If Johnson is able to corral the caucus and pass the bill, it moves to the Senate, where a simple majority doesn’t cut it. At least 60 votes are needed to clear the threshold, meaning at least seven Democrats have to agree (assuming all Republicans vote in unison). This all needs to be hammered out by Friday at 11:59 p.m.

What’s in the bill?: It would boost defense spending by roughly $6 billion. It would also cut nondefense spending by about $13 billion. Republicans argue it’s a “clean” bill, but Democrats slammed cuts to health care, nutritional assistance and veterans’ benefits.

????️ Follow today’s live blog — there are a lot of moving parts, so I find it particularly helpful on days like today.

That’s the exact question congressional leadership is trying to balance. While Republicans are in charge of the House, the Senate and the White House (all despite lack of total unity), Senate Democrats could absorb much of the blame of a government shutdown.

On one hand: Democratic senators are critical of the House bill, arguing it gives Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk too much power to redirect government funding and eliminate programs.

But on the other hand: If the funding saga gets held up in the Senate, it would likely be Democrats’ fault. And the party worries Trump and Musk could also make a shutdown very painful for federal workers.

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton spoke with Dems about a new fear: “There’s growing fear among Democrats that Trump could feel politically emboldened to let a shutdown drag on for many weeks, and that, in turn, could give Musk more leverage to push federal workers to retire, as many might feel financial pressure to look for work in the private sector if they have to endure weeks without a paycheck.”

So, what will Democrats do?: We shall see, but Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) did not declare the bill dead on arrival.

Read Bolton’s reporting: ‘Senate Democrats leery of blocking GOP bill fear shutdown politics have changed’

Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) blasted the bill for cutting $1 billion out of the District’s budget.

The Washington Post notes that “almost every D.C. lawmaker” stood in front of the U.S. Capitol on Monday to advocate against this part of the bill. 

©  AP File

President Trump has escalated the U.S.’s trade war with Canada, announcing he will double tariffs on Canadian metal from 25 percent to 50 percent.

Why?: The Ontario government imposed an electricity surcharge against the U.S. as part of the growing trade war. That surcharge will affect electricity sales for 1.5 million homes and businesses in the U.S.

This could cost up to $400,000 a day, so Trump said he would declare a national emergency to alleviate the pain of the surcharge.

The White House promised there will *not* be any cuts to Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid benefits after Trump’s top ally Elon Musk made comments about the need to examine entitlement spending.

What started this?: Musk did a rare television interview on Monday with Fox Business Network and noted that most government spending is on entitlements.

The line getting attention: “So, the waste and fraud in entitlement spending, which is all of the — which is most of the federal spending is entitlements. So, that’s, like, the big one to eliminate,” Musk told former Trump official Larry Kudlow, suggesting it could amount to more than $500 billion in annual savings.

The big political risks: Cuts to programs like Social Security or Medicare would trigger intense backlash politically, and Trump has repeatedly vowed not to touch them.

The president’s approval rating dipped by 2 points, according to a new Emerson College Polling survey. 47 percent of voters approve of his job performance, dropping from 49 percent when he took office.

• The Wall Street Journal: Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing
  
• The New York Times: Trump Promised Americans Booming Wealth. His Language Is Changing.

???? Celebrate: Today is National Johnny Appleseed Day. I vividly remember celebrating this in elementary school. Anyone else?

???? Southwest broke my heart: Southwest Airlines will no longer offer free checked bags for most customers.

????️ Michelle Obama is in the podcasting game: Former first lady Michelle Obama and her brother Craig Robinson are launching a podcast.

????‍????‍???? If you’re wondering about the vibes in D.C. these days: “Overheard District” posted a conversation heard in the Navy Yard neighborhood of Washington on a Monday morning: “Is nobody at work today? Why are there so many people?” The response: “Literally everyone got laid off.”

The House and Senate are in. President Trump and Vice President Vance are in Washington. (all times Eastern)

• 12:30 p.m.: Trump and Vance have lunch together.
• 1 p.m.: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt briefs reporters. ???? Livestream
• 1:30 p.m.: First House votes of the day. ???? Today’s agenda
• 2:15 p.m.: Two Senate votes, including a confirmation vote on the deputy transportation secretary. ???? Today’s agenda
• 4 p.m.: Last House votes.
• 5 p.m.: Trump speaks at the Business Roundtable Quarterly Meeting. ???? Livestream

Who needs a snowplow when you have a dog who loves a task?

Miss yesterday's 12:30 Report? Catch up with a 1-minute video recap here.

Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com. A friend forward this to you? Subscribe here.

View past issues of 12:30 Report here and check out other newsletters from The Hill here. See you next time!